Breaking Down Possible Playoff Scenarios

It’s finally that time of the year as the college football season is coming to an end with championship weekend right around the corner. Going into this weekend it looks as no matter what happens this weekend 3 out of the 4 playoff spots have been locked up by Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame. Notre Dame has no conference championship as they are an independent team. Alabama and Clemson both have conference championship games this weekend and will both most likely win. Clemson definitely has a weaker opponent compared to Alabama but with as dominant as Alabama is I think they will take care of Georgia. The final spot is open but there are only a select possible teams who can take this spot. These teams are Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia and UCF. Let’s see how these teams can get into the final spot.

Scenario #1: Georgia Beats Alabama in SEC Championship

This is not the most likely scenario but it is the most definite in terms of if Georgia wins they are in no matter what Ohio State and Oklahoma do. This would make the final 4 teams Clemson,Notre Dame,Georgia, Alabama.

Scenario #2: Georgia loses to Alabama, Ohio State beats Northwestern, and Oklahoma loses to Texas

This is another definite scenario, Ohio State gets the final spot in this scenario making the final 4 teams Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State.

Scenario #3: Georgia loses to Alabama, Ohio State loses to Northwestern, and Oklahoma beats Texas

This is just like scenario #2 except Ohio State and Oklahoma are swapped. This would make the final 4 Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma.

Scenario #4: Georgia loses to Alabama, Ohio State loses to Northwestern, Oklahoma loses to Texas and UCF beats Memphis in AAC Championship.

This is where things get a little bit tricky. If LSU and Washington State were to not lose last week this scenario would most likely open up a spot for one of them but now with a 3 loss LSU and a 2 loss Washington State in a weak PAC-12 I think this the only way UCF gets a shot at the playoffs. With no more Mckenzie Milton for UCF I don’t think this would be an entertaining matchup vs Alabama but i hope i’m wrong. This scenario would most likely make the final 4 teams Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and UCF.

Scenario #5: Georgia loses to Alabama, Ohio State loses to Northwestern, Oklahoma loses to Texas and UCF loses to Memphis

This is a very very unlikely situation but it is still possible. With this scenario I think Georgia would get the nod for the 4 spot with only 2 losses coming from LSU and Alabama so pretty much only one loss as the committee probably won’t put much weight on an Alabama loss. This would make the final 4 Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Georgia.

Scenario #6: Georgia loses to Alabama, Ohio State beats Northwestern and Oklahoma beats Texas

This is a very similar scenario to what happened last year between Ohio State and Alabama but the 4th spot ultimately went to Alabama. This may be the most likely scenario as  a very dominant Alabama will most likely take care of Georgia, Ohio State is far superior to Northwestern and Oklahoma has already lost to Texas so you never know but it definitely has looked like Oklahoma has improved since that loss. There can be many things said about this scenario but ultimately it will be up to the committee on who they think is the better team between Ohio State and Oklahoma. Just another thing to express how crazy this sport is but in my opinion Ohio State is definitely a better team than Oklahoma but if they were to play Oklahoma would win. I know that doesn’t exactly make sense if you are not familiar with college football but if you are it makes sense. I think the final 4 teams for this scenario would be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State. I would love to see Kyler Murray take on Alabama’s defense but I think the committee is going to have a problem with Oklahoma’s defense and put in Ohio State instead of Oklahoma.

By Andrew Kalb

 

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