MLB Playoff Predictions: Dodgers vs Braves 4

What a wild ride it has been so far this postseason. As of this writing, we have one sweep in the books as the Brewers took out the overworked Rockies and a potential second sweep as the Astros look to dispatch the Indians this afternoon.

After a strong start to our predictions, we had a rough weekend, causing us to change our methods when it comes to predictions for the remainder of the postseason. We attempted to predict the games 3 days out, some before the starting pitcher was even announced and that did not work out. In games that we predict the day of we have a stellar record of 5-1. Game predictions 2 days out we drop to 2-2 and as of this writing we are 0-2 in games predicted 3 games out. We had the Yankees and Astros winning Game 3 today, so we could possibly get back to .500, however we have decided to stick with predictions 2 games at a time from here on out in order to make better predictions.

A recap of specific predictions we made correctly so far this postseason:

  • Khris Davis & Giancarlo Stanton home runs in the AL Wild Card game
  • Direct quote about the 10 inning Game 1 between the Rockies and Brewers: “The game will get interesting when it goes to the bullpen as both teams will give up key runs late”
  • Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz would be shaky in his first 2 innings vs the Dodgers
  • Kershaw giving a dominant performance through 7 innings (He wound up going 8)
  • Indians pitcher Kluber will have back-to-back innings of difficulty before being pulled from Game 1 against the Astros.
  • JD Martinez home run off Yankees pitcher JA Happ
  • Chris Sale pitching his longest game since July
  • Several home runs being hit in Game 2 between the Yankees and Red Sox

Now we are back to provide the predictions for Games 4, and if necessary Game 5, of the Dodgers vs Braves series.

The Dodgers are taking the conservative route by going with Rich Hill in order to save their aces, Ryu and Kershaw, for the NLCS. Meanwhile, the Braves are going with their ace Mike Foltynewicz who hopes to have a better outing against the Dodgers lineup than he did during Game 1 of the series.

The Dodgers offense has matched or outhit the Braves in hits (17 to 17), walks (20 to 4), Extra Base Hits (10 to 3) and runs (14 to 6). Game 3 of the Series was more of the same as the Dodgers outhit the Braves 7 to 4, drew more walks (9 to 4) and had more Extra Base Hits (3 to 2). Despite all of that the Dodgers lost the game 6-5. The statistic that stands out most to me with the Dodgers offense is their Runners Left on Base. In Game 3, the Dodgers left 21 runners on base, compared to just 4 by the Braves. Over the 3 games in this series the Dodgers left a combined 45 runners on base compared to just 19 by the Braves.

 

Our Prediction:

Game 4, Rich Hill will be a force to reckon with as he continues his hot streak of strong performances. He will get into some trouble in the middle innings, but ultimately will leave the game with a lead. Mike Foltynewicz will be looking for redemption after his Game 1 performance. He will do well for the first inning or two, before finding himself in trouble. He will manage to get out of trouble in one inning, but the Dodgers offense will finally find the big hits that drive in runners. The Braves will fire back against the Dodger bullpen, but ultimately will fall setting up an NLCS matchup of Dodgers vs Brewers.

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